MORE RESERVOIRS OR TRANSFERS? A COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS OF PROJECTED WATER SHORTAGES IN THE ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN

A computable general equilibrium model of the southeastern Colorado economy is used to compare the economic impacts of a proposed increase in reservoir storage to an alternative: temporary water transfers. While both provide municipalities with reliable water supply during droughts and are shown to benefit both rural and urban communities, temporary transfers are accomplished at a much lower economic and environmental cost. This analysis illustrates how computable general equilibrium models provide a more realistic portrayal of the impact of policy changes than input-output analysis by allowing substitution in response to economic conditions.Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Learning the Preferences of Ignorant, Inconsistent Agents

An important use of machine learning is to learn what people value. What posts or photos should a user be shown? Which jobs or activities would a person find rewarding? In each case, observations of people's past choices can inform our inferences about their likes and preferences. If we assume that choices are approximately optimal according to some utility function, we can treat preference inference as Bayesian inverse planning. That is, given a prior on utility functions and some observed choices, we invert an optimal decision-making process to infer a posterior distribution on utility functions. However, people often deviate from approximate optimality. They have false beliefs, their planning is sub-optimal, and their choices may be temporally inconsistent due to hyperbolic discounting and other biases. We demonstrate how to incorporate these deviations into algorithms for preference inference by constructing generative models of planning for agents who are subject to false beliefs and time inconsistency. We explore the inferences these models make about preferences, beliefs, and biases. We present a behavioral experiment in which human subjects perform preference inference given the same observations of choices as our model. Results show that human subjects (like our model) explain choices in terms of systematic deviations from optimal behavior and suggest that they take such deviations into account when inferring preferences.Comment: AAAI 201

Grazing-angle scattering of electromagnetic waves in gratings with varying mean parameters: grating eigenmodes

A highly unusual pattern of strong multiple resonances for bulk electromagnetic waves is predicted and analysed numerically in thick periodic holographic gratings in a slab with the mean permittivity that is larger than that of the surrounding media. This pattern is shown to exist in the geometry of grazing-angle scattering (GAS), that is when the scattered wave (+1 diffracted order) in the slab propagates almost parallel to the slab (grating) boundaries. The predicted resonances are demonstrated to be unrelated to resonant generation of the conventional guided modes of the slab. Their physical explanation is associated with resonant generation of a completely new type of eigenmodes in a thick slab with a periodic grating. These new slab eigenmodes are generically related to the grating; they do not exist if the grating amplitude is zero. The field structure of these eigenmodes and their dependence on structural and wave parameters is analysed. The results are extended to the case of GAS of guided modes in a slab with a periodic groove array of small corrugation amplitude and small variations in the mean thickness of the slab at the array boundaries.Comment: 16 pages, 6 figure

Cubic spline prewavelets on the four-directional mesh

In this paper, we design differentiable, two dimensional, piecewise polynomial cubic prewavelets of particularly small compact support. They are given in closed form, and provide stable, orthogonal decompositions of L^2(\RR^2). In particular, the splines we use in our prewavelet constructions give rise to stable bases of spline spaces that contain all cubic polynomials, whereas the more familiar box spline constructions cannot reproduce all cubic polynomials, unless resorting to a box spline of higher polynomial degree